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技术炒作周期(Hype Cycle)

Hype cycle直译过来是炒作周期的意思,是美国咨询公司Gartner从1995年开始每年发布的一个关于技术成熟度报告,从时间维度将技术的成熟度分成5个周期:
Innovation Trigger(萌芽期) Peak of Inflated Expectations(过热期) Trough of Disillusionment(低谷期) Slope of Enlightenment(复苏期) Plateau of Productivity(成熟期)

阿马拉法则

阿马拉法则(Amara’s law):人们常常高估技术的短期影响力,而低估技术的长期影响力。
Hype cycle可以看作是阿马拉法则的一种图像化描述。
Hype cycle可以看到不同技术随着时间的起起伏伏,也可以看到一项技术从萌芽到成熟的经过。

2020年Garnter整理的5个趋势

Composite architectures

In the face of rapid changes and decentralization, organizations need to shift to more agile, responsive architectures. A composite architecture is made up of packaged business capabilities built on a flexible data fabric. This allows the enterprise to respond to rapidly changing business needs.
The composable enterprise has four core principles: Modularity, efficiency, continuous improvement and adaptive innovation.

  • composable enterprise
  • packaged business capabilities
  • data fabric
  • private 5G
  • embedded AI.

    Algorithmic trust

    Increased amounts of consumer data exposure, fake news and videos, and biased AI, have caused organizations to shift from trusting central authorities (government registrars, clearing houses) to trusting algorithms. Algorithmic trust models ensure the privacy and security of data, provenance of assets, and the identities of people and things.
  • authenticated provenance
  • differential privacy
  • responsible AI
  • explainable AI

    Beyond silicon

    Moore’s Law predicts that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit would double every two years, but technology is quickly reaching the physical limits of silicon. This has led to the evolution of new advanced materials with enhanced capabilities designed to support smaller, faster technologies.
  • DNA computing and storage
  • biodegradable sensors
  • carbon-based transistors

    Formative AI

    Formative AI is a type of AI capable of dynamically changing to respond to a situation. There are a variety of types, ranging from AI that can dynamically adapt over time to technologies that can generate novel models to solve specific problems.
    • generative AI
    • composite AI
    • differential privacy
    • small data
    • self-supervising learning

Digital me

From health passports to digital twins, as technology integrates with people, there are more opportunities to create digital versions of ourselves. These digital models represent humans in both the real and virtual worlds.

  • health passports
  • digital twins
  • BMI(bidirectional brain-machine interfaces)

2019年Garnter整理的5个趋势

2018年Garnter整理的5个趋势

历年的Garnter Hype Cycle图:

References:

  1. Gartner hype clcle
  2. wiki hype cycle
  3. AMARA’S LAW
  4. Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2018
  5. 5 Trends Appear on the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2019
  6. 5 Trends Drive the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2020